This is part of a series of articles examining the impact of the five most expensive footballers. For an overview of the rules guiding this (unscientific) study and the players being examined, please see the introductory article.
In what may come as a surprise to some who follow football, Romelu Menama Lukaku Bolingoli was actually at the top of this list until the 2023 summer transfer window; €333.36m to Neymar’s €310m. (Sign of just how long this article has been in the pipeline.)
Like Neymar, discussed in the previous article, Lukaku has been involved in three transfers worth over €50m. Unlike Neymar, though, all three can be evaluated. So let’s get started.
Lukaku to Manchester United (€84.7m): 2017 to 2019
Manchester United had just had their most successful season since Sir Alex Ferguson retired at the end of 2012/13 season. They concluded the 2016/17 season as Europa League and League Cup winners.
Despite this, their league performance was a mess. They finished sixth, something that would have been unthinkable just a few short years before. There was a recognition that, despite success in two cup competitions, Manchester United needed to be challenging on all fronts, starting with the Premier League.
However, the loss of 17-goal hero Zlatan Ibrahimović was going to make that a bit more challenging. Enter Big Rom.
(Quick aside: It should be noted that the 17 goals mentioned were just in the Premier League. Despite ending the season with injury, Ibrahimović scored a total of 28 goals and provided 10 assists over the course of 46 games in 2016/17.)
Having finished the 2016/17 season as second on the top scorers list with 25 goals, it was felt that Lukaku would more than make up for the departure of Ibrahimović, whose 17 goals had propelled goal-shy Manchester United to a total of 54 goals.
Add that to the fact that the team were managed by José Mourinho, whose second stint at Chelsea overlapped with Lukaku’s first stint at Chelsea (football is messy), Lukaku’s transfer seemed to be a match made in heaven.
But was it?
| Season | League Position | League Points (Max 114) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 (without) | 5 | 66 |
| 2016/17 (without) | 6 | 69 |
| 2017/18 (with) | 2 | 81 |
| 2018/19 (with) | 6 | 66 |
| 2019/20 (without) | 3 | 66 |
| 2020/21 (without) | 2 | 74 |
| Avg. 70.33 |
Lukaku’s first season at the club saw Manchester United finish second in the league, something that Mourinho went on to call one of the greatest achievements of his career.
While one may be tempted to take such a statement with a pinch of salt, the second-place finish in the 2017/18 season was United’s highest league position post-Ferguson. Incidentally, Lukaku scored a hat-trick (three goals) for West Brom during Ferguson’s last match in charge; a game that ended 5-5.
This season also saw the highest points total not just of any season in the six-year period being evaluated, but of any post-Ferguson season to date. (Maybe Mourinho might have been on to something.)
With such an impressive finish, many fans and observers expected the club to kick on and sustain a challenge for the league title. Sadly, that didn’t happen. The 2017/18 season saw a steep drop in performance, with the club finishing 4 league positions lower and with 15 fewer points.
How, though, did Lukaku figure in all of this?
| Season | Club League Goals | Goals | Assists1 | % Contribution2 | Match Winners3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 (without) | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2016/17 (without) | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2017/18 (with) | 68 | 16 | 7 | 33.82% | 5 |
| 2018/19 (with) | 65 | 12 | 1 | 20.00% | 4 |
| 2019/20 (without) | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2020/21 (without) | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Lukaku seems to have held up his end of the bargain: He delivered goals.
Mirroring the team’s fortunes, his highlight campaign was the 2017/18 season, when he bagged 16 goals. Coupled with his 7 assists, he contributed to 33.82% of the goals scored by the team. This combined total of 23, it should be noted, was much lower than the 25 goals and 6 assists he got for Everton just the previous season. While Lukaku might have personally been disappointed with the numbers he posted, it should have provided a solid foundation for subsequent seasons.
It didn’t.
His second and final season proved to be something of a disappointment comparatively. Rather than building on the performance of his debut season, Lukaku’s contributions decreased noticeably. He scored 12 goals and assisted just once for an overall contribution of 20%, a drop of 13 percentage points. Despite this, Lukaku was still able to score 4 match-winning goals, earning 12 points for the team. Had he found the net more regularly, one might wonder, would he have led the team to a few more points? We’ll never know.
What we do know is that the team didn’t miss him too much after his departure. The following two seasons saw the number of goals scored trend upwards. In fact, the highest number of goals scored in the six-year evaluation period was at its highest in 2020/21, two years after Lukaku’s departure.
With all of this in mind, what can we say about Lukaku’s transfer to Manchester United? Was it a success? No.
A transfer that seemed to have started off so promisingly ended in disappointment for both the club and the player, whose sole achievement was:
- Being part of one of the best performances of Mourinho’s coaching career.
How much of this is down to the player and how much is down to the team is not for this article to discuss. But it should be noted that the only other trophy won by the club since 2016/17 was the League Cup in 2022/23, some four years after Lukaku’s big-money departure.
Lukaku to Inter Milan (€74m): 2019 to 2021
While he left Manchester United under a bit of a cloud, Lukaku’s record in the Premier League up to that point stood at a respectable 113 goals scored in 252 games, a figure that puts him among the top 25 goalscorers in Premier League history. Perhaps it is this that convinced Inter Milan to take a punt on Lukaku in 2019.
At this point in time, Inter Milan had gone 8 years without winning a thing, having last lifted a trophy during the 2010/11 season.
For a team that had got used to the taste of silverware, having lifted 15 trophies between 2004 and 2011, such a long period without any form of success was a veritable famine.
Enter Big Rom. Again.
(While looking at the data below, ignore the statistics from the 2022/23 season. We’ll get back to them later on.)
| Season | League Position | League Points (Max 114) |
|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 (without) | 4 | 72 |
| 2018/19 (without) | 4 | 69 |
| 2019/20 (with) | 2 | 82 |
| 2020/21 (with) | 1 | 91 |
| 2021/22 (without) | 2 | 84 |
| 2022/23 (with) | 3 | 72 |
| Avg. 78.33 |
Much like his time at United, Lukaku spent two seasons at Inter Milan. (Again, we’ll get back to the 2022/23 season.)
And also like his time at United, his first season at Inter yielded a second-place finish, immediately improving on the consecutive fourth-place finishes of the two preceding seasons. The points total of 82 was also the highest number of points earned by the club since the 2009/10 season (also 82). Once again, his first season at a club yielded reasons for immense optimism. Would the follow-up build on this excitement? Or would it be a let-down?
Thankfully for all those affiliated with Inter Milan, the answer was the former rather than the latter. Inter Milan ended the long wait for a league title by finishing the season as champions. And they did it in style too, earning the highest points total since the 2006/07 season, when they finished as champions with 97 points.
Unsurprisingly, or surprisingly, Lukaku played a big part in the club’s achievements.
| Season | Club League Goals | Goals | Assists1 | % Contribution2 | Match Winners3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 (without) | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2018/19 (without) | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2019/20 (with) | 81 | 23 | 2 | 30.86% | 7 |
| 2020/21 (with) | 89 | 24 | 10 | 38.20% | 8 |
| 2021/22 (without) | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2022/23 (with) | 71 | 10 | 6 | 22.54% | 1 |
Based on the lightning start he made to life at Inter, you wouldn’t know that Lukaku had just come off a disappointing campaign. He hit the ground running, scoring 34 goals and providing 6 assists in all competitions, with 23 of those goals and 2 of those assists coming in the league.
Just how big an impact did Lukaku’s arrival have on Inter’s goalscoring ability? Looking at the numbers, he singlehandedly contributed to the 42% increase in goals scored by Inter. Taking away his goals and assists, Inter would be left with a total of 56 goals scored. And that’s without factoring in the 21 points he earned for his team through his 7 match-winning goals. Pretty impressive as far as debut seasons go. His second season, it turns out, would be even better.
Building on his excellent first-season performance, Lukaku ended the 2020/21 league season with 24 goals and 10 assists; an overall contribution of 38.20% of the club’s goals. Of these 24 goals, 8 were match winners, contributing a whopping 24 points, or 26.37% of the club’s total league points. The end-result is that, as mentioned above, Inter clinched their 19th league title.
Interestingly, though, one area that declined in 2020/21 was his contribution in other competitions. Whereas he scored 11 and provided 4 assists in 2019/20 in other competitions, those numbers dipped to 6 goals and 0 assists in 2020/21.
With two good seasons under his belt at Inter, the future was looking good for both club and player. But the one constant in life is change. And change came knocking in the form of Chelsea FC, who made an offer that was too good for Inter Milan, whose financial woes were well-documented, to turn down.
During his time at Inter, Lukaku helped the team lift one trophy:
- 1 x Italian League (2020/21)
Having left Manchester United under a bit of a cloud and with something to prove, Lukaku’s time at Inter Milan can be considered a success, if not, perhaps, quite as fruitful in terms of trophies as might have been hoped. But that wasn’t the end of his story at Inter.
Lukaku to Chelsea (€113m): (2021 to date)
They say that you should never go back to your ex. That saying, for some reason, doesn’t seem to apply in the world of football. In one of two examples that we shall consider in quick succession, Lukaku returned to Chelsea, having left for Everton in 2014.
Quick digression: Remember the definition of one-season stays that I mentioned in guideline #4? This is one of two transfers where it comes into play.
Chelsea had just come off the back of a somewhat mixed season. On the one hand, they won the 2020/21 edition of the UEFA Champions League, beating Manchester City 1-0. On the other hand, however, they finished fourth in the league, 19 points behind champions Manchester City (funny old game, isn’t it?). They also lost the FA Cup final to Leicester, a team that finished 1 point and 1 position behind Chelsea in the league (again, funny old game, isn’t it?).
Many, fans and observers alike, felt that Chelsea were one striker short of a truly dominant team. And looking at the statistics, one could see their point.
In the league, for instance, they scored 58 goals, 25 goals shy of top dogs, Manchester City; this tally was also the lowest among the teams that finished in the top 7.
The decision-makers at Chelsea agreed with this sentiment. In a transfer that broke the club’s then-transfer record, Lukaku was brought back to Chelsea for €113m.
Despite the eye-watering amounts involved in the transfer, it looked to make sense. Here’s a quote from Lukaku that seemed to capture the general sentiment:
The way the club is going fits my ambitions perfectly at 28 and just coming off winning Serie A. I think this opportunity comes at the right time and hopefully we can have a lot of success together.
| Season | League Position | League Points (Max 114) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 (without) | 4 | 66 |
| 2020/21 (without) | 4 | 67 |
| 2021/22 (with) | 3 | 74 |
| 2022/23 (with) | 12 | 44 |
| Avg. 62.75 |
First, there is nothing wrong with your screen or how the graph above is being rendered. Chelsea were absolutely pathetic in 2022/23. The drop in performance was so much, I had to change the graph setup slightly from the graphs used so far. But let me not get too far ahead of myself just yet.
The 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons were both fairly identical, with the club finishing in fourth place in both seasons and a difference of only 1 point in the points total. But that changed in 2021/22.
Despite only moving up one place in the league table, there was an appreciable increase in the points earned. All that was undone in 2022/23, but we’ll get to that.
As for Lukaku’s role in all of this, things probably didn’t pan out quite as well as he’d have hoped.
| Season | Club Leage Goals | Goals | Assists 1 | % Contribution 2 | Match Winners3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 (without) | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2020/21 (without) | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 2021/22 (with) | 76 | 8 | 1 | 11.84% | 3 |
| 2022/23 (with) | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
In 2021/22, Lukaku scored a grand total of 8 goals, chipping in with 1 assist for a total contribution of 11.84%. That’s … not great. Especially given the amount of money that was spent on him. That return is so bad, in fact, that you would need to go back all the way to 2011/12 to find a season in which he scored fewer than 10 league goals. In that season, he scored a grand total of 2 goals for his first club, RSC Anderlecht. Those goals came in the first two matches of the season, before his first transfer to Chelsea. He made a further 8 appearances, this time for Chelsea, during the 11/12 season, not once completing a full match. (He made 7 appearances as a substitute; he started the eighth but was substituted off before completing the match.)
So why was Lukaku’s goal return so poor? It largely seems to come down to two factors.
First, a total lack of form. He only scored in 6 of the 26 games in which he featured. Granted, he only played the full 90 minutes in 12 of these games, with the 14 other appearances ranging in duration from 4 to 80 minutes.
Regardless, however, that’s not the sort of return that would be expected from a player that cost so much. (Read more: Breakdown of appearances made by Lukaku in the 2021/22 Premier League season.)
Second, as a result of his poor form, Lukaku did not feature as much as he would have liked to. In an interview with Sky Italia, Lukaku admitted that he was “not happy” with the situation. In something of a vicious cycle, though, this unhappiness seemed to affect his performances on the pitch; he went 10 appearances without scoring after the release of that interview.
For all his failings, if you were take away the 9 points earned by Lukaku (3 match winners), Chelsea would have ended the season with 65 points, a points haul that would have been lower than the previous two seasons’ tallies.
And he also ended the season with one trophy:
- 1 x Club World Cup (2022)
So what in the world happened in 2022/23?
Loan to Inter Milan (€7.86m loan fee): 2022 to 20234
Remember the figures from the section discussing Lukaku’s time at Inter Milan? This is where the 2022/23 statistics come into play.
Despite spending a sizeable fee to acquire Lukaku’s services only the year before, Chelsea decided to cut their losses.
While a sale would have been preferred, Inter, financial issues and all, were unable to afford a permanent transfer. And, so, in a deal that worked for all parties, Lukaku went on loan back to Inter Milan, a move he himself described as “coming back home.”
As it turns out, the move benefitted Lukaku and Inter a lot more than it did Chelsea. Despite being affected by injuries (he only completed 90 minutes in 10 league matches), Lukaku’s goal contribution improved. He scored 10 goals and provided 6 assists for Inter, an overall contribution of 22.54%.
While Inter did not win the league, finishing in third place, Lukaku ended the season with two more trophies:
- 1 x Italian Cup (2022/23)
- 1 x Italian Super Cup (2022/23)
Chelsea, meanwhile, went from disappointing in 2021/22 to laughably mediocre in 2022/23. In a season of turmoil for the club that had bled over from the end of 2021/22, Chelsea scored a total of 38 goals in the league, half of what they had scored just one season before. And after three successive top-four finishes in the league, they ended 2022/23 in 12th place with 44 points.
Sadly, unlike 2020/21 or 2021/22, there were no other trophies to ease the disappointment. They were terrible all around.
Would retaining the services of Lukaku have helped Chelsea, even a little bit? I can’t say for sure. What I can say is that having a player who has shown himself capable of chipping in with a few goals wouldn’t have hurt their chances.
So what can we say about Lukaku’s transfer to Chelsea? Was it a success?
No.
The Lukaku transfer is looking more and more like a bad bit of business on the part of Chelsea. Not only did they spend an absurd amount of money on the player, they have barely got any value for money. Lukaku’s relative success while on loan at Inter and his performances while on loan at Roma during the ongoing 2023/24 season stand in stark contrast to Chelsea’s struggles.
Will Chelsea eventually be able to offload Lukaku? Or is he destined to continue being sent out on loan until his Chelsea contract expires? Only time will tell.
And that brings part two to a close.
Until the next one, take care.
Footnotes
For a basic understanding of what constitutes an assist, see this Wikipedia page. ↩ ↩2 ↩3
”% Contribution” is the total number of goals and assists contributed by a player expressed as a percentage of the total goals scored by the team. ↩ ↩2 ↩3
To best understand the idea behind a match-winning goal, consider the following examples:
- In a match that ends 1-0, the match winner is, obviously, the only goal.
- In a match that ends 2-0, the match winner is the first goal.
- In a match that ends 4-2, the match winner is the third goal scored by the winning team.
In cases where points earned by a player are calculated, only the match winners are considered. Points earned in a draw are NOT factored in. ↩ ↩2 ↩3
A loan is a temporary transfer of a player to a club other than the club to which the player is currently contracted. The player remains under contract at Club A but spends a period of time playing for Club B. Such a transfer may involve a fee, or it may be free. ↩