If you like a long read, here’s the single-article version of the series.
Foreword
I initially envisioned this as one (long-ish, not-at-all-scientific) article that examined the outcome of transfers involving the five most expensive footballers in history. (Fun fact: The idea behind this article is what got me thinking of starting a blog.)
However, with the numbers involved and the resultant analysis, the article ended up being longer than I anticipated. A lot longer.
So I decided to break it down into multiple articles that would (hopefully) be a lot easier to consume.
Over the coming few weeks, I’ll be publishing the different sections of that article separately before finally publishing it in its full form for those of you who like long reads. As you read the different posts, please think of them, not as different, self-contained articles but as different pieces of a puzzle that come together to form a complete picture.
Research for this article was an interesting, at times surprising, process. It is my hope that you find the result just as interesting to read.
“I wonder what [Eden] Hazard is doing these days…”
This passing thought is what provided the inspiration for this long-gestating article. Hazard has since been released from his contract (a year early) by Real Madrid and has retired from football at the age of 32. (Side bar: How is Thiago Silva still going at 39??)
Given that the club signed the player for the mammoth fee of 115m euros, an early release, while hardly an ideal return on investment, is perhaps indicative of how far he fell short of initial expectations.
Looking at some of the many, many, many big-money transfers that took place during the 2023 summer transfer window in Europe and beyond, one can tell that there’s a lot of money in football. And judging by some of the mooted transfers, transfer outlay is clearly poised to increase. With such lavish amounts being spent on players, it seems fitting to ask: Does spending large amounts of money translate to success on the pitch?
To answer this question, let us examine some of the biggest transfers in football history and the sporting success, or lack thereof, of the clubs. First, some ground rules to guide us:
- Success is defined in purely sporting terms. This means that such factors as shirt sales, social media visibility, etc. are not considered. (Read more: How much do clubs actually make from shirt sales?)
- Only the transfer fees as reported on Transfermarkt factor into this analysis. (Read more: What role does Transfermarkt play in football transfers?)
- Managerial changes and their impact on team tactics are not considered.
The Players
For many, the shock transfer of Neymar from Barcelona to PSG (Paris Saint-Germain) for a world record fee of €222m was the moment that football changed forever. And no wonder. The fee paid was more than double the €94m paid for Cristiano Ronaldo in 2009.
And you know what, football did change.
Neymar’s transfer seemingly opened Pandora’s Box, with a number of transfers since then crossing the €100m threshold. As of the time of writing, there have been 13 transfers over €100m since Neymar’s PSG transfer as compared to two, Paul Pogba (€105m) and Gareth Bale (€101m), before the transfer.
While it would have been easy to select players based on the shock value of their transfers, it wouldn’t have been very objective. So I decided to take a more balanced approach by considering the cumulative transfer fee commanded by a player over time. After all, it stands to reason that if a player has been involved in several high-value transfers, this player must be worth the money, right?
While this approach would obviously favour more recent transfers, it does provide us with a few unexpected inclusions on the list. Without further ado, here’s the list of players we’ll be looking at:
- Neymar (€400m)
- Romelu Lukaku (€339m)
- Cristiano Ronaldo (€247m)
- Ousmane Dembélé (€220m)
- Álvaro Morata (€189m)
And once you’re done with them, the Conclusion.
These are the rules we’ll follow when evaluating the above players:
- Only transfers over €50m shall be considered.
- The entire duration of the player’s stay at a club shall be considered.
- Where applicable, the two seasons immediately before and immediately after the player’s arrival and departure respectively shall be considered. This will help us determine if there was an appreciable difference in the club’s performance with the player present.
- No one-season stays shall be considered. A stay is here defined as the period of time when the player is under contract at a club. (Keep this definition in mind; it will come into play later.)
- Only the player’s contribution to the club’s league performance shall be analysed. There will, however, be mentions of the club’s exploits in other competitions.
With all of the necessary housekeeping out of the way, let’s get down to business… in the next article.
Until the next one, stay tuned.
Or should I have ended with “To Be Continued” à la One Piece?